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Football predictions from bookmakers – 2008 vs 2009

Bookmakers use their own soccer prediction models. Their odds are usually calculated in a way that minimizes the payouts for match favourites. The accuracy of these predictions can be checked by comparing the betting odds and the actual result of the football matches.

This article compares the accuracy of football predictions made by bookmakers during 2008/09 and the first half of 2009/10. The comparison is based on the average betting odds of the main European soccer leagues.

Data and methods

To compare the accuracy of the bookmakers’ predictions, the authors of this article analyzed the match results and average betting odds of the following 10 major European soccer leagues: Austrian Bundesliga, English Premier League, Dutch Eredivisie , French Ligue 1, German Bundesliga 1, Greek Ethniki, Italian Serie A, Scottish Premier League, Spanish First Division and Turkish Super League.

The result of a match was estimated based on the average payout offered by bookmakers for that match. The possible profit of a bettor betting on the bookies’ favourites, was calculated according to the average betting odds.

Summary

The conclusion was that bookmakers successfully predicted the outcome of more than 54% of matches during the 2008/09 and 2009/10 seasons. Thus, the average accuracy of football predictions from bookmakers is relatively high in the case of the major European leagues. However, the low winnings make these predictions very unprofitable as betting tips.

1×2 bets:

— Losses of -4% and -2%, respectively, were estimated for bettors, who used fixed odds as betting tips.
— The only profitable league during those two seasons was the Austrian Bundesliga (+14% and +6% profit) with more than 60% correct match predictions.
— The least profitable leagues were the Scottish Premier (-22% and -6%) and the German Bundesliga (-11% and -6%).
— The most dramatic improvement in 1×2 betting profits was seen in the Dutch Eredivisie league, where the profit changed from -11% to +8%.
— The most drastic drop in profit from 1×2 bets was seen in the Turkish Super Lig, where the profit changed from +4% to -18%.

Total bets under or over are the least profitable:

— Total losses under/over 2.5 were about the same during both seasons and equal to 10%.

The bottom line is that using football predictions from bookmakers as betting tips does not give results in daily betting. Although the accuracy of its predictions is high, its odds do not bring profit on bets.

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